Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity. In this paper, we focus on expectations heterogeneity among professional forecasters. We first present stylized facts and discuss theoretical explanations for heterogeneous...

We analyse the ftnancial forecasts small and medium-sized German banks provided in several waves of a quantitative survey, called LIRES, and compare them with the results the banks actually realized. Based on this unique data set, we ftnd that the predictions are relevant, especially concerning...

Among the most important tasks of central banks is to ensure the availability of cash to credit institutions and retailers. Forecasting the demand for cash on a granular level is crucial in the process to keep logistics costs low, while being resilient to demand or supply shocks. Whereas to...

We develop models that take point forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) as inputs and produce estimates of survey-consistent term structures of expectations and uncertainty at arbitrary forecast horizons. Our models combine fixed-horizon and fixed-event forecasts,...