VARs. To address these issues, we propose VAR models with outlier-augmented stochastic volatility (SV) that combine … transitory and persistent changes in volatility. The resulting density forecasts are much less sensitive to outliers in the data … the pandemic period, as well as for earlier subsamples of relatively high volatility. In historical forecasting, outlier …

We measure consumers’ use of cash by harmonizing payment diary surveys from seven countries: Australia, Austria, Canada …

Does the structure of banking markets affect macroeconomic volatility and, if yes, is this link different in low … markets affects macroeconomic volatility. Our research has three main findings. First, we study the relevance of granular … effects: if the degree of market concentration in the banking sector is sufficiently high, idiosyncratic volatility at the …