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The dynamic impact of macroeconomic news on long-term inflation expectations
Hachula, Michael; Nautz, Dieter - 2017
Well-anchored inflation expectations should not react to short-term oriented macroeconomic news. This paper analyzes the dynamic response of inflation expectations to macro news shocks in a structural VAR model. As identification of structural macro news shocks is controversial, we use a proxy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011647611
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Uncertainty about QE effects when an interest rate peg is anticipated
Gerke, Rafael; Giesen, Sebastian; Kienzler, Daniel - 2018
After hitting the lower bound on interest rates, the Eurosystem engaged in a public sector purchase programme (PSPP) and forward guidance (FG). We use prior and posterior predictive analysis to evaluate the importance of parameter uncertainty in an analysis of these policies. We model FG as an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011846905
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Common risk factors in the US and UK interest rate swap markets : evidence from a non-linear vector autoregression approach
Lekkos, Ilias; Milas, Costas - 2002
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001664578
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The law of one food price
Clements, Kenneth W.; Si, Jiawei; Long Hai Vo - 2019
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012207562
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Macroeconomic stability and the real interest rate : a cross-country analysis
Groth, Charlotta; Zampolli, Fabrizio - 2010
We construct a measure of the short-term world interest rate using principal component analysis. Drawing on real … interest rate data for 18 OECD countries for the period 1985 - 2008, persistent deviations from the world interest rate that … that a rise in conditional consumption growth volatility relative to the rest of the world reduces the foreign exchange …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008695840
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The dynamic impact of FX interventions on financial markets
Menkhoff, Lukas; Rieth, Malte; Heidland, Tobias - 2019
Evidence on the effectiveness of FX interventions is either limited to short horizons or hampered by debatable identification. We address these limitations by identifying a structural vector autoregressive model for the daily frequency with an external instrument. Applying this approach to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012138448
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Non-additivity of subjective expectations over different time intervals
Haan, Peter; Sun, Chen; Sunde, Uwe; Weizsäcker, Georg - 2022
We examine the additivity of stock-market expectations over different time intervals. When asked about a ten-year interval, survey respondents expect a stock-price change that is not equal to, but closer to zero than, the sum of their expectations over two shorter time intervals that cover the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014458819
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Inflation target credibility in times of high inflation
Coleman, Winnie; Nautz, Dieter - 2022
We use a representative online survey to investigate the inflation expectations of German consumers and the credibility of the ECB's inflation target during the recent high inflation period. We find that credibility has trended downwards since summer 2021, reaching an all-time low in April 2022....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013285915
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Non-additivity of subjective expectations over different time intervals
Haan, Peter; Sun, Chen; Sunde, Uwe; Weizsäcker, Georg - 2022
We examine the additivity of stock-market expectations over different time intervals. When asked about a ten-year interval, survey respondents expect a stock-price change that is not equal to, but closer to zero than, the sum of their expectations over two shorter time intervals that cover the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014088354
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Capital controls and covered interest parity between the yen and dollar
Ito, Takatoshi - 1983
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003528805