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mandate of price stability in the current low-inflation, low-interest-rate scenario. This paper contributes to the existing … anchoring of inflation expectations. I carry out my analysis based on a high-frequency identification and the estimation of a … forward guidance, i.e. forecasters revise their long-run expectations upwards. Consequently, inflation increases, which …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012305860
find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB’s SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … (not always for the countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012792526
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012601651
This paper empirically investigates the role of long-term inflation expectations for the monetary transmission … mechanism. In contrast to earlier studies, we confirm that U.S. long-term inflation expectations respond significantly to a … monetary policy shock. In line with a re-anchoring channel of monetary policy, we find that long-term inflation expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012311576
The uncertainty of U.S. core inflation, measured by the stochastic volatility of forecast errors, has soared to a level … increase after a positive shock to core inflation uncertainty in a vector autoregression. Endogenous changes in household … inflation expectations help to understand the transmission mechanism through which an inflation uncertainty shock generates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436184
In many forward-looking macroeconomic models, such as the New Keynesian model, firms' expectations about the future play a key role in determining outcomes today. We examine this hypothesis using a novel panel dataset on firms actual and expected price changes collected by the Confederation of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011523616
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000914068
This paper contrasts empirically four leading models of inflation dynamics - the accelerationist Phillips curve (APC … inflation dynamics. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012061245
Well-anchored inflation expectations should not react to short-term oriented macroeconomic news. This paper analyzes … the dynamic response of inflation expectations to macro news shocks in a structural VAR model. As identification of … impact on U.S. long-term inflation expectations in the long run. In the short run, however, the degree of expectations de …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011647611
information from the yield curve. We find important changes in the dynamics of macroeconomic variables such as inflation and the … variables. The monetary policy shocks of the early 1980s explain a large portion of the persistence of inflation and the level … ; inflation expectations ; credibility building ; evidence on expectations hypothesis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003674660