This paper uses a "trendy" approach to understand UK inflation dynamics. It focuses on the time series to isolate a low …-frequency and slow-moving component of inflation (the trend) from deviations around this trend. We find that this slow-moving trend … explains a substantial share of UK inflation dynamics. International prices are significantly correlated with the short …

Did the decline in inflation rates from 2012 to 2015 and the low levels of market-based inflation expectations lead to … de-anchored inflation dynamics in the euro area? This paper is the first time-varying event study to investigate the … reaction of inflation-linked swap (ILS) rates - a market-based measure of inflation expectations - to macroeconomic surprises …

, premium components are less reactive to inflation shocks, while real rate responses change their sign from positive to …

macroeconomic effects. This finding requires inflation expectations to adjust counterfactually large. When modeling inflation …

mandate of price stability in the current low-inflation, low-interest-rate scenario. This paper contributes to the existing … anchoring of inflation expectations. I carry out my analysis based on a high-frequency identification and the estimation of a … forward guidance, i.e. forecasters revise their long-run expectations upwards. Consequently, inflation increases, which …

underestimate the ECB's inflation forecasting accuracy. In particular, they believe that the ECB is overly optimistic. Communication … that challenges these perceptions improves the anchoring of inflation expectations, reduces inflation uncertainty and … discourages consumption of durable goods. Treated households also report higher trust in the ECB, perceive the ECB's inflation …

During the post-pandemic inflation surge, many central banks actively used communication about the inflation outlook as … a policy tool to limit spillovers from realized to expected inflation. We present novel survey evidence showing that the … ECB's guidance about the projected inflation path substantially lowers households' inflation expectations in times of …

During the post-pandemic inflation surge, many central banks actively used communication about the inflation outlook as … a policy tool to limit spillovers from realized to expected inflation. We present novel survey evidence showing that the … ECB's guidance about the projected inflation path substantially lowers households' inflation expectations in times of …

exploits the rounding patterns in individuals' responses to survey questions on inflation expectations (Binder, 2017). This … inflation expectations. …

Central bank surveys frequently elicit households’ probabilistic beliefs about future inflation. However, most … household surveys use a response scale that is tailored towards low-inflation regimes. Using data from a randomized controlled … trial included in the Bundesbank Online Panel Households, we show (i) that keeping the original scale in high-inflation …