We outline a procedure for combining six cross-sections of the German Sample Survey of Income and Expenditure, and discuss potential pitfalls of such a venture. Particularly, we investigate the consequences of a major break in the survey design for inter-temporal comparisons of expenditure...

This paper compares two single-equation approaches from the recent nowcast literature: Mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) regressions and bridge equations. Both approach are used to nowcast a low-frequency variable such as quarterly GDP growth by higher-frequency business cycle indicators. Three...

We propose a novel view of selection bias in longitudinal surveys. Such bias may arise from initial nonresponse in a probability sample, or it may be caused by self-selection in an internet survey. A contraction theorem from mathematical demography is used to show that an initial bias can...

We study the relationship between overconfidence and the political and financial behavior of a nationally representative sample. To do so, we introduce a new method of eliciting overconfidence that is simple to understand, quick to implement, and captures respondents' excess confidence in their...

Space-varying regression models are generalizations of standard linear models where the regression coefficients are allowed to change in space. The spatial structure is specified by a multivariate extension of pairwise difference priors thus enabling incorporation of neighboring structures and...

We propose a new view of initial nonresponse bias in longitudinal surveys. Under certain conditions, an initial bias may "fade-away" over consecutive waves. This effect is discussed in a Markovian framework. A general contraction theorem for time inhomogeneous Markov chains is presented. The...

We study the relationship between overconfidence and the political and financial behavior of a nationally representative sample. Consistent with theoretical predictions, our findings indicate that excessive confidence in one's judgment is associated with lower portfolio diversification, greater...

This article presents a computationally efficient approach to sample from Gaussian state space models. The method is an instance of precision-based sampling methods that operate on the inverse variance-covariance matrix of the states (also known as precision). The novelty is to handle cases...

We test the importance of social norms for market interactions associated with negative real-world externalities in a large-scale experiment with a heterogeneous population sample from Germany. The majority of experimental participants refuses to trade, thus behaving in a moral way. Our data...

We propose a new approach to sample unobserved states conditional on available data in (conditionally) linear unobserved component models when some of the observations are missing. The approach is based on the precision matrix of the states and model variables, which is sparse and banded in many...