This paper introduces an axiomatic model of decision making where a person's subjective judgment as to the likelihood of different states of nature depends upon her anticipated payoff in those states. In the resulting representation the payoff consequences of an event affect beliefs as if they...

We show how incorporating Gilboa, Maccheroni, Marinacci, and Schmeidler's (2010) notion of objective rationality into the α-MEU model of choice under ambiguity (Hurwicz, 1951) can overcome several challenges faced by the baseline model without objective rationality. The decision-maker (DM) has...

We propose a class of multiple-prior representations of preferences under ambiguity where the belief the decision-maker (DM) uses to evaluate an uncertain prospect is the outcome of a game played by two conflicting forces, Pessimism and Optimism. The model does not restrict the sign of the DM's...

How can naivete about present bias persist despite experience? To answer this question, our experiment investigates participants' ability to learn from their own behavior. Participants decide how much to work on a real effort task on two predetermined dates. In the week preceding each work date,...