It is well known that information arrival has an impact on prices volatility, and trading volume in financial markets (see e.g., Goodhart and O'Hara 1997). Scheduled macroeconomic announcements, such as monthly employment figures, consumer prices, or building permits, stand out from the steady...

Asset price processes are completely described by information processes and investors' preferences. In this paper we derive the relationship between the process of investors ́expectations of the terminal stock price and asset prices in a general continous time pricing kernel framework. To...

We propose a novel view of selection bias in longitudinal surveys. Such bias may arise from initial nonresponse in a probability sample, or it may be caused by self-selection in an internet survey. A contraction theorem from mathematical demography is used to show that an initial bias can...

A large literature studies subjective beliefs about economic facts using unincentivized survey questions. We devise randomized experiments in a representative online survey to investigate whether incentivizing belief accuracy affects stated beliefs about average earnings by professional degree...

We study the relationship between overconfidence and the political and financial behavior of a nationally representative sample. To do so, we introduce a new method of eliciting overconfidence that is simple to understand, quick to implement, and captures respondents' excess confidence in their...

High nonresponse rates have become a rule in survey sampling. In panel surveys there occur additional sample losses due to panel attrition, which are thought to worsen the bias resulting from initial nonresponse. However, under certain conditions an initial wave nonresponse bias may vanish in...

This paper investigates if significant differences exist between online and paper & pencil participants in a quarterly business survey in the German business-related services sector when respondents may freely choose to respond either online or by more conventional methods. It also analyzes the...