Showing 1 - 10 of 78
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012487189
Knowledge-based capital is a key factor for productivity growth. Over the past 15 years, it has been increasingly recognised that knowledge-based capital comprises much more than technological knowledge and that these other components are essential for understanding productivity developments and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012292714
This paper evaluates the quality of survey forecasts, their accuracy and unbiasedness, and their overall consistency. The paper also tries to find out whether the relationships between economic variables are the same in survey data and in the actual data. In other words we analyze whether the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503030
This paper studies professional forecasts on a micro level using three alternative data sets. The analysis is mainly based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasts for the euro area, but for comparison, Consensus Economics survey and the Survey of Professional Forecasts for the US are also...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503031
We apply the boosting estimation method to investigate to what ex-tent and at what horizons macroeconomic time series have nonlinearpredictability coming from their own history. Our results indicate thatthe U.S. macroeconomic time series have more exploitable nonlinearpredictability than...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503077
We explore whether modelling parameter time variation improves the point, interval and density forecasts of nine major exchange rates vis-a-vis the US dollar over the period 1976-2015. We find that modelling parameter time variation is needed for an accurate calibration of forecast confidence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011489395
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012798248
Those of professional forecasters do. For a wide range of time series models for the euro area and its member states we find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB’s SPF and Consensus Economics compared to their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012792526
This paper analyses the forecasting performance of monetary policy reaction functions using U.S. Federal Reserve … forecasting purposes. Overall, evidence suggests that U.S. monetary policy behaviour between1987-2012 is nonlinear. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012256503
There has been increased interest in the use of "big data" when it comes to forecasting macroeconomic time series such … as private consumption or unemployment. However, applications on forecasting GDP are rather rare. In this paper we … incorporate Google search data into a Bridge Equation Model, a version of which usually belongs to the suite of forecasting models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011667109