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Do speculative traders anticipate or follow USD/EUR exchange rate movements? : new evidence on the efficiency of the EUR currency futures market
Hossfeld, Oliver; Röthig, Andreas - 2015
We address the question of whether various types of speculative investor correctly anticipate future USD/EUR currency movements or whether they tend rather to react to past exchange rate movements. Throughout the analysis, we differentiate between large and small traders, and an upper bound of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011391722
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The synchronization of European credit cycles
Meller, Barbara; Metiu, Norbert - 2015
We study the synchronization of credit booms and busts among 12 major European economies and the United States between 1972-2011. We propose a regression-based procedure to test whether boom-bust phases of credit cycles coincide across countries and to cluster countries with positively...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011299045
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Financial crises and the dynamic linkages between stock and bond returns
Eraslan, Sercan; Ali, Faek Menla - 2017
This paper investigates the dynamic linkages in terms of the first and second moments between stock and bond returns, within a wide range of advanced economies, over the different phases of the recent financial crisis. The adopted empirical framework is a bivariate volatility model, where...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011663407
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Asymmetric arbitrage trading on offshore and onshore renminbi markets
Eraslan, Sercan - 2017
This paper investigates the asymmetries in arbitrage trading with onshore and offshore renminbi spot rates, focusing on the time-varying driving factors behind the deviations of the two rates from their long-run equilibrium. Fundamentally, offshore and onshore renminbi rates represent the same...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011649208
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Shock around the clock - on the causal relations between international shock markets, the strength of causality and the intensity of shock transmission : an econometric analysis
Dornau, Robert - 1998
This paper investigates empirically the interrelationships between the daily stock market returns of the Nikkei 225, DAX and Dow Jones Industrial index. Contrary to former work this paper uses the succession of the markets in time to form different econometric models. In this way it is possible...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013428145
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The credit quality channel : modeling contagion in the interbank market
Fink, Kilian; Krüger, Ulrich; Meller, Barbara; Wong, … - 2015
We propose an algorithm to model contagion in the interbank market via what we term the credit quality channel. In … existing models on contagion via interbank credit, external shocks to banks often spread to other banks only in case of a … questions. For that purpose, we propose to measure the potential cost of contagion of a given shock scenario by the aggregated …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011381702
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From financial to real economic crisis : evidence from individual firm-bank relationships in Germany
Dwenger, Nadja; Fossen, Frank M.; Simmler, Martin - 2015 - First version: February 14, 2015, This version: September 25, 2015
What began as a financial crisis in the United States in 2007-2008 quickly evolved into a massive crisis of the global real economy. We investigate the importance of the bank lending and firm borrowing channel in the international transmission of bank distress to the real economy - in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011346644
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Capturing information contagion in a stress-testing framework
Anand, Kartik; Gauthier, Céline; Gai, Prasanna; … - 2016
We develop an operational model of information contagion and show how it may be integrated into a mainstream, top … quantify this contagion channel in the context of the Bank of Canada's model of the Canadian banking system and a stress …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011520642
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Centrality-based capital allocations
Alter, Adrian; Craig, Ben R.; Raupach, Peter - 2015
We look at the effect of capital rules on a banking system that is connected through correlated credit exposures and interbank lending. The rules, which combine individual bank characteristics and interconnectivity measures of interbank lending, are to minimize a measure of system-wide losses....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010471625
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Banks, markets, and financial stability
Eder, Armin; Fecht, Falko; Pausch, Thilo - 2014
We use a Diamond/Dybvig-based model with two banks operating in separate regions connected by a common asset market in which banks and sophisticated depositors invest. We study the effect of a potential run (crisis) and subsequent fire sales on the asset price in both the crisis and no-crisis...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010433396