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Electricity market operation : transitioning from a free market to a single buyer structure
Daglish, Toby; Bragança, Gabriel Godofredo Fiuza de; … - 2016
We examine electricity market reform in Brazil: from the 1990s till 2004 the largely hydro-powered market cleared using a market mechanism, and in March 2004 reformed to a single buyer structure. We model monthly log price differences using a two-state Markov Switching model, allowing water...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012059460
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Demand for locally provided public services within the median voter's framework : the case of the Brazilian municipalities
Mendes, Constantino Cronemberger; Sousa, Maria da … - 2015
In this paper we estimated the demand for local public spending for the Brazilian municipalities within a median voter’s framework. The median voter theorem provides a method of aggregating individual voter's demands to obtain community demand. The rationale for applying that framework came...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012023649
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Quasi-Monte Carlo methods in stochastic simulations : an application to fiscal policy simulations using an aggregate disequilibrium model of the West German economy 1960 - 1994
Franz, Wolfgang (contributor) - 1998
Different stochastic simulation methods are used in order to check the robustness of the outcome of policy simulations … possible margin. Because of nonlinearities confidence intervals for the simulation results have to be obtained by means of … stochastic simulations. The main contribution of this paper consists in presenting the simulation results. The robustness of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000654506
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Exploring the role of trust indicators in the P2P economy : analysis and simulations of an Airbnb market
Fleischer, Aliza; Ert, Eyal; Bar-Nachum, Ziv - 2020
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014296997
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Industrialization, returns, inequality
Albers, Thilo N. H.; Kersting, Felix; Stieglitz, Timo - 2023
How does revolutionary technological change impact wealth inequality? We turn to the mother of all technological shocks–the Industrial Revolution–and analyze its role for wealth concentration both empirically and theoretically. Based on a novel dataset on wealth shares at the level of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014487319
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Analyzing the relationships between survey forecasts for different variables and countries
Paloviita, Maritta; Viren, Matti - 2012
This paper evaluates the quality of survey forecasts, their accuracy and unbiasedness, and their overall consistency. The paper also tries to find out whether the relationships between economic variables are the same in survey data and in the actual data. In other words we analyze whether the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503030
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Are individual survey expectations internally consistent?
Paloviita, Maritta; Viren, Matti - 2012
This paper studies professional forecasts on a micro level using three alternative data sets. The analysis is mainly based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasts for the euro area, but for comparison, Consensus Economics survey and the Survey of Professional Forecasts for the US are also...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503031
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Boosting Non-linear Predictability of Macroeconomic Time Series
Kauppi, Heikki; Virtanen, Timo - 2018
We apply the boosting estimation method to investigate to what ex-tent and at what horizons macroeconomic time series have nonlinearpredictability coming from their own history. Our results indicate thatthe U.S. macroeconomic time series have more exploitable nonlinearpredictability than...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503077
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Point, interval and density forecasts of exchange rates with time-varying parameter models
Abbate, Angela; Marcellino, Massimiliano - 2016
We explore whether modelling parameter time variation improves the point, interval and density forecasts of nine major exchange rates vis-a-vis the US dollar over the period 1976-2015. We find that modelling parameter time variation is needed for an accurate calibration of forecast confidence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011489395
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Do well managed firms make better forecasts?
Bloom, Nicholas; Kawakubo, Takafumi; Meng, Charlotte; … - 2022
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012798248