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How can we assess the welfare of a society, its evolution over time and predict its change due to particular policy interventions? One way is to use survey-based welfare indicators such as the OECD Better Life Index. It invites people to weight a variety of quality of life indicators according...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011625648
We propose a nonparametric test that distinguishes “depressions” and “booms” from ordinary recessions and expansions. Depressions and booms are defined as coming from another underlying process than recessions and expansions. We find four depressions and booms in the NBER business cycle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010202869
The current paper broadens the understanding for the role of uncertainty in the context of a macroeconomic environment. It focuses on the implications of uncertainty shocks on indicators that tend to precede financial crises. In an empirical analysis we show for a set of four euro area countries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012102657
The equity premium follows a pronounced v-shape pattern around the beginning of recessions. It sharply drops into negative territory just before business cycle peaks and then strongly recovers as the recession unfolds. Recessions are preceded by an inverted yield curve. Thus probit models using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012607106
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003528122
From 2014 until present, housing prices in Germany have been rising faster than consumer prices in all quarters except one, raising concerns about an excessive over-heating of the housing market. To assess the vulnerability of the German housing market to a future realignment of prices or even a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012098990
The aim of this paper is to describe and discuss the weak and strong sustainability approach of assessing climate change and to show reasonable applications, weaknesses, possible improvements and linkages of both approaches. Main features of weak and strong sustainability approaches are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013428104
In der vorliegenden Arbeit untersuchen wir die Eignung der ifo-Geschäftserwartungen und der ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen als Frühindikatoren für die deutsche Industrieproduktion. Anhand von Granger-Kausalitätstests wird gezeigt, dass die auf Umfragen unter Finanzanalysten basierenden...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013428388
We analyze four economic sentiment indicators for the German economy regarding their ability to forecast economic activity. Using cross correlations and Granger causality tests we find that the ifo business expectations (ifo), the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and the ZEW Indicator of Economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013428496
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013428584