Showing 1 - 10 of 255
The recent crisis in the United States has often been associated with substantial amounts of policy uncertainty. In this paper we ask how uncertainty about fiscal policy affects the impact of fiscal policy changes on the economy when the government tries to counteract a deep recession. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010211956
Identifying exogenous variation in monetary policy is crucial for investigating central bank policy transmission. Using newly-collected archival real-time data utilized by the Central Bank Council of the German Bundesbank, we identify unexpected changes in German monetary policy from 580 policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013361910
's vulnerability to periods of heightened risk and uncertainty. This paper develops a framework to evaluate such vulnerabilities. It … and explore how they are affected by domestic and global risk. We apply this framework to ten OECD economies, showing the … Kingdom, show that a substantial degree of international risk sharing can occur through current accounts and international …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011477292
According to current regulation, European banks can apply zero risk weights to sovereign exposures in their balance … sheet, irrespective of the assigned rating. We show that a zero risk weighting of sovereign bonds has implications by … introduced via a penalty function that punishes banks if they deviate from the target capital ratio. We study the zero risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012098989
We extend the canonical income process with persistent and transitory risk to shock distributions with left …-skewness and excess kurtosis, to which we refer as higher-order risk. We estimate our extended income process by GMM for household … show that in a standard incomplete-markets life-cycle model, first, higher-order risk has sizable welfare implications …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012215285
Does a shift to ambitious climate policy increase financial fragility? In this paper, we develop a quantitative macroeconomic model with carbon taxes and endogenous financial crises to study such "Climate Minsky Moments". By reducing asset returns, an accelerated transition to net zero exerts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014632326
Price setting has become more flexible following a string of large adverse shocks (Covid-19, the Ukraine War). We argue that a shift to a high-uncertainty regime incentivizes firms to invest in their ability to adjust prices. We formalize this idea in a general equilibrium model with endogenous...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014558815
Geopolitical risk cannot be measured in a universal way. We develop new geopolitical risk indicators relying on local … newspaper coverage to account for different perceptions. Using Russia as a case study, we demonstrate that geopolitical risk … shocks identified from local news sources have significant adverse effects on the Russian economy, whereas geopolitical risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015055856
to estimate Growth at Risk as introduced in Adrian, Boyarchenko, and Giannone's (2019) seminal paper "Vulnerable Growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012807854
The uncertainty of U.S. core inflation, measured by the stochastic volatility of forecast errors, has soared to a level not seen in nearly five decades since the COVID-19 pandemic hit the global economy. Prices, consumption, and production increase after a positive shock to core inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436184