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The recent crisis in the United States has often been associated with substantial amounts of policy uncertainty. In this paper we ask how uncertainty about fiscal policy affects the impact of fiscal policy changes on the economy when the government tries to counteract a deep recession. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010211956
Identifying exogenous variation in monetary policy is crucial for investigating central bank policy transmission. Using newly-collected archival real-time data utilized by the Central Bank Council of the German Bundesbank, we identify unexpected changes in German monetary policy from 580 policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013361910
's vulnerability to periods of heightened risk and uncertainty. This paper develops a framework to evaluate such vulnerabilities. It … and explore how they are affected by domestic and global risk. We apply this framework to ten OECD economies, showing the … Kingdom, show that a substantial degree of international risk sharing can occur through current accounts and international …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011477292
to estimate Growth at Risk as introduced in Adrian, Boyarchenko, and Giannone's (2019) seminal paper "Vulnerable Growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012807854
After hitting the lower bound on interest rates, the Eurosystem engaged in a public sector purchase programme (PSPP) and forward guidance (FG). We use prior and posterior predictive analysis to evaluate the importance of parameter uncertainty in an analysis of these policies. We model FG as an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011846905
The uncertainty of U.S. core inflation, measured by the stochastic volatility of forecast errors, has soared to a level not seen in nearly five decades since the COVID-19 pandemic hit the global economy. Prices, consumption, and production increase after a positive shock to core inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436184
Geopolitical risk cannot be measured in a universal way. We develop new geopolitical risk indicators relying on local … newspaper coverage to account for different perceptions. Using Russia as a case study, we demonstrate that geopolitical risk … shocks identified from local news sources have significant adverse effects on the Russian economy, whereas geopolitical risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015055856
Investment fell sharply in the euro area after the financial crisis and has not yet returned to pre-crisis levels in many core economies. Focusing on the four largest euro-area countries, this paper investigates the role of uncertainty for investment dynamics. By doing so, we compare five...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011571047
We discuss how cross-country unemployment insurance can be used to improve international risk sharing. We use a two … international risk sharing concerns enter the unemployment insurance trade-off. We calibrate our model to Eurozone data and find …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011532638
According to current regulation, European banks can apply zero risk weights to sovereign exposures in their balance … sheet, irrespective of the assigned rating. We show that a zero risk weighting of sovereign bonds has implications by … introduced via a penalty function that punishes banks if they deviate from the target capital ratio. We study the zero risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012098989