Showing 1 - 10 of 282
The recent crisis in the United States has often been associated with substantial amounts of policy uncertainty. In this paper we ask how uncertainty about fiscal policy affects the impact of fiscal policy changes on the economy when the government tries to counteract a deep recession. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010211956
Identifying exogenous variation in monetary policy is crucial for investigating central bank policy transmission. Using newly-collected archival real-time data utilized by the Central Bank Council of the German Bundesbank, we identify unexpected changes in German monetary policy from 580 policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013361910
's vulnerability to periods of heightened risk and uncertainty. This paper develops a framework to evaluate such vulnerabilities. It … and explore how they are affected by domestic and global risk. We apply this framework to ten OECD economies, showing the … Kingdom, show that a substantial degree of international risk sharing can occur through current accounts and international …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011477292
The uncertainty of U.S. core inflation, measured by the stochastic volatility of forecast errors, has soared to a level not seen in nearly five decades since the COVID-19 pandemic hit the global economy. Prices, consumption, and production increase after a positive shock to core inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436184
Based on SVAR models identified by sign restrictions, we estimate the macroeconomic effects of financial and uncertainty shocks in the euro area and the US, paying particular attention to their effects on prices. While our results confirm that such disturbances are important drivers of output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011897983
Investment fell sharply in the euro area after the financial crisis and has not yet returned to pre-crisis levels in many core economies. Focusing on the four largest euro-area countries, this paper investigates the role of uncertainty for investment dynamics. By doing so, we compare five...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011571047
We discuss how cross-country unemployment insurance can be used to improve international risk sharing. We use a two … international risk sharing concerns enter the unemployment insurance trade-off. We calibrate our model to Eurozone data and find …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011532638
After hitting the lower bound on interest rates, the Eurosystem engaged in a public sector purchase programme (PSPP) and forward guidance (FG). We use prior and posterior predictive analysis to evaluate the importance of parameter uncertainty in an analysis of these policies. We model FG as an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011846905
We extend the canonical income process with persistent and transitory risk to shock distributions with left …-skewness and excess kurtosis, to which we refer as higher-order risk. We estimate our extended income process by GMM for household … show that in a standard incomplete-markets life-cycle model, first, higher-order risk has sizable welfare implications …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012215285
According to current regulation, European banks can apply zero risk weights to sovereign exposures in their balance … sheet, irrespective of the assigned rating. We show that a zero risk weighting of sovereign bonds has implications by … introduced via a penalty function that punishes banks if they deviate from the target capital ratio. We study the zero risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012098989