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-to-specific testing strategy reveals a recursive structure where only the unemployment rate and long-term interest rates are directly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009774367
. This paper provides a new way of assessing the credibility of monetary policy by analyzing the dispersion of inflation-unemployment … 1999-2013. The analysis is based on dispersion measures where we use alternative weights for inflation and unemployment and … also on a simple Misery index which is just a sum of inflation and unemployment values. The general outcome of the paper is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503057
The standard New Keynesian model suffers from the so-called .macro-micro pricing conflict: in order to match the dynamics of inflation implied by macroeconomic data, the model needs to assume an average duration of price contracts which is much longer than what is observed in micro data. Here I...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003546364
This paper derives alternative measures of the short-run NAIRU (SRN) for the UK, the rate for unemployment at which … a beneficial impact on RPIX inflation over the last few years. We show that deviations of unemployment from the short …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011517881
This paper estimates the Brazilian Nairu (Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) and investigates several … concludes that there is a statistically significant relationship, with correct sign, between deviations of unemployment from the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012007780
I derive the imperfect-common-knowledge Phillips curve under the assumption of Rotemberg pricing. The curve differs from the Calvo version in one important aspect. Expectations of future relative prices impact in ation.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011582888
This paper examines the reasons for the declining path of inflation since the 1970s. In particular, it focusses on the role of globalization - covering both changes in the global market structure and technical and structural developments in trade and production. In addition, the paper deals with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014551656
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000323991
This paper evaluates the quality of survey forecasts, their accuracy and unbiasedness, and their overall consistency. The paper also tries to find out whether the relationships between economic variables are the same in survey data and in the actual data. In other words we analyze whether the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503030
This paper studies professional forecasts on a micro level using three alternative data sets. The analysis is mainly based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasts for the euro area, but for comparison, Consensus Economics survey and the Survey of Professional Forecasts for the US are also...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503031