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Recent monetary search models emphasize that the real effects of inflation via its impact on price dispersion depend on … the level of search costs and, thus, on the level of market integration. For less integrated markets, the inflation …-price dispersion nexus is predicted to be asymmetrically V-shaped which implies an optimal inflation rate above zero. For highly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003952539
Yes, indeed; at least for macroeconomic policy interaction. We examine a Neo-Classical economy and provide the conditions for policy arrangements to successfully stabilize the economy when agents have either rational or adaptive expectations. For a contemporaneous-data monetary policy rule, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011513023
of economic policies. Of particular interest, of course, are the dramatic changes in inflation as a consequence of the … considered to be of decisive importance in combating inflation. Although we cannot provide a formal test for the importance of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015396831
fiscal stance and inflation using crosscountry data from 1965 to 1999. In a first step, we contrast the monetary … that the low-frequency relationship between the fiscal stance and inflation is low during periods of an independent central … illustrate the mechanisms through which fiscal actions affect inflation in the long run. The findings from the DSGE model suggest …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011391752
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012594086
Leveraging Wall Street Journal news, recent developments in textual analysis, and generative AI, we estimate a narrative decomposition of the dollar exchange rate. Our findings shed light on the connection between economic fundamentals and the exchange rate, as well as on its absence. From the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015165647
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013262839
We explore whether modelling parameter time variation improves the point, interval and density forecasts of nine major exchange rates vis-a-vis the US dollar over the period 1976-2015. We find that modelling parameter time variation is needed for an accurate calibration of forecast confidence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011489395
We address the question of whether various types of speculative investor correctly anticipate future USD/EUR currency movements or whether they tend rather to react to past exchange rate movements. Throughout the analysis, we differentiate between large and small traders, and an upper bound of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011391722
This paper presents a new approach for modelling the connectedness between asset returns. We adapt the measure of Diebold and Yılmaz (2014), which is based on the forecast error variance decomposition of a VAR model. However, their connectedness measure hinges on critical assumptions with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011968850