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Recession Prediction with Optimal Use of Leading Indicators
Kauppi, Heikki - 2019
We use the gradient boosting estimation technique and the ROC curveto non-parametrically measure and exploit the maximal predictive powerof leading indicators for the future state of the business cycle. We de-velop novel procedures for finding the best performing transformationsof individual...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503078
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A thousand words tell more than just numbers: Financial crises and historical headlines
Ristolainen, Kim; Roukka, Tomi; Nyberg, Henri - 2021
We show that financial crises are preceded by changes in specific types of narrative information contained in newspaper article titles. Our novel international dataset and the resulting empirical evidence are gathered by integrating information from a large panel of economic news articles in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013394372
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Disentangling economic recessions and depressions
Candelon, Bertrand; Metiu, Norbert; Straetmans, Stefan - 2013
We propose a nonparametric test that distinguishes “depressions” and “booms” from ordinary recessions and expansions. Depressions and booms are defined as coming from another underlying process than recessions and expansions. We find four depressions and booms in the NBER business cycle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010202869
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A thousand words tell more than just numbers : financial crises and historical headlines
Ristolainen, Kim; Roukka, Tomi; Nyberg, Henri - 2021
We show that financial crises are preceded by changes in specific types of narrative information contained in newspaper article titles. Our novel international dataset and the resulting empirical evidence are gathered by integrating information from a large panel of economic news articles in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012695692
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Analyzing the relationships between survey forecasts for different variables and countries
Paloviita, Maritta; Viren, Matti - 2012
This paper evaluates the quality of survey forecasts, their accuracy and unbiasedness, and their overall consistency. The paper also tries to find out whether the relationships between economic variables are the same in survey data and in the actual data. In other words we analyze whether the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503030
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Does experience shape subjective expectations?
Rossmann, Tobias - 2019
This paper documents that individuals' expectations about macroeconomic outcomes are systematically linked with the … experiences of these macroeconomic outcomes they have made during life. Focusing on expectations about national inflation … variables over the respondents' lifetime, respectively. I find that experience significantly predicts respondents' expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012064821
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Explaining gaps in educational transitions between migrant and native school leavers
Zimmermann, Markus - 2019
' more academically oriented career aspirations and expectations before leaving school. On the one hand, these higher …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012033803
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Dynamics and heterogeneity of subjective stock market expectations
Heiss, Florian; Hurd, Michael D.; Rossmann, Tobias; … - 2019
Between 2004 and 2016, we elicited individuals' subjective expectations of stock market returns in a Dutch internet … differ in how they use past stock market returns to form current stock market expectations. The model allows for rounding in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012033828
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Economic uncertainty and subjective inflation expectations
Rossmann, Tobias - 2019
. Macroeconomists increasingly rely on survey data on subjective expectations. An innovative approach to measure aggregate uncertainty … exploits the rounding patterns in individuals' responses to survey questions on inflation expectations (Binder, 2017). This … inflation expectations. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012034114
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The impact of political announcements on expectations concerning the starting date of the EMU : a microeconometric approach to the detection of event-dependent answering patterns i...
Kaiser, Ulrich - 1997
This paper examines German business survey data to uncover the influence of political news on expectations concerning …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011621979