Showing 1 - 10 of 144
forecasting macroeconomic key variables such as GDP. However, the DFM has some weaknesses. For nowcasting, the dynamic factor … on euro-area data show that the now- and forecasting performance of our new model is superior to that of the subset …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011566828
Climate change causes natural disasters to occur at higher frequency and increased severity. Using a unique dataset on German banks, this paper explores how regionally less diversified banks in Germany adjusted their loan loss provisioning following the severe summer flood of 2013, which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013370513
The impact of technology on the demand for heterogeneous labor is controversely discussed throughout the literature. New technology which is said to favor high skilled labor and to substitute low skilled labor is often considered as the main reason for the decline in relative demand for low...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011621722
Single equation models are well established among academics and practitioners to perform temporal disaggregation of low frequency time series using available related series. In this paper, we propose an extension that exploits information from the cross-sectional dimension. More specifically, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011649195
This paper evaluates the quality of survey forecasts, their accuracy and unbiasedness, and their overall consistency. The paper also tries to find out whether the relationships between economic variables are the same in survey data and in the actual data. In other words we analyze whether the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503030
This paper studies professional forecasts on a micro level using three alternative data sets. The analysis is mainly based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasts for the euro area, but for comparison, Consensus Economics survey and the Survey of Professional Forecasts for the US are also...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503031
We apply the boosting estimation method to investigate to what ex-tent and at what horizons macroeconomic time series have nonlinearpredictability coming from their own history. Our results indicate thatthe U.S. macroeconomic time series have more exploitable nonlinearpredictability than...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503077
We explore whether modelling parameter time variation improves the point, interval and density forecasts of nine major exchange rates vis-a-vis the US dollar over the period 1976-2015. We find that modelling parameter time variation is needed for an accurate calibration of forecast confidence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011489395
There has been increased interest in the use of "big data" when it comes to forecasting macroeconomic time series such … as private consumption or unemployment. However, applications on forecasting GDP are rather rare. In this paper we … incorporate Google search data into a Bridge Equation Model, a version of which usually belongs to the suite of forecasting models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011667109