Organisation capital is one of the key intangible assets of firms, driving innovation and firm performance. Measuring this asset has been notoriously difficult, however. Differently to other intangible assets, firms do not build up organisation capital primarily by monetary investment but rather...

Virtually each seasonal adjustment software includes an ensemble of seasonality tests for assessing whether a given time series is in fact a candidate for seasonal adjustment. However, such tests are certain to produce either the same resultor conflicting results, raising the question if there...

This paper proposes a test for missing at random (MAR). The MAR assumption is shown to be testable given instrumental variables which are independent of response given potential outcomes. A nonparametric testing procedure based on integrated squared distance is proposed. The statistic's...

This paper investigates the evolution of aggregate productivity and markups among French manufacturing firms between 1994 and 2016, by focusing on the role of reallocation with respect to both aggregate measures. Firm-level productivity and markups are estimated based on a gross output translog...

Production functions provide a mapping from the firms' input quantity and productivity to output quantity. This mapping only generates unbiased estimates if input and output quality variation within and between observation units is accounted for. I review and classify state-of-the-art methods to...

The interest rate assumptions for macroeconomic forecasts differ considerably among central banks. Common approaches are given by the assumption of constant interest rates, interest rates expected by market participants, or the central bank’s own interest rate expectations. From a theoretical...

In this paper, we construct a single composite financial stress indicator (FSI) which aims to predict developments in the real economy in the euro area. Our FSI was shown to perform better than the Euro STOXX 50 volatility index for the recent banking crisis and the euro-area sovereign debt...

Using a simple sign test, we report new empirical evidence, taken from both the US and the German stock markets, showing that trading behavior substantially changed around Black Monday in 1987. It turned out that before Black Monday investors behaved more as in the momentum strategy; and after...

This paper develops high-frequency econometric methods to test for jumps in the spread of bond yields. We derive a coherent inference procedure that detects a jump in the yield spread only if at least one of the two underlying bonds displays a jump. We formalize the test as a sequential...