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We explore whether modelling parameter time variation improves the point, interval and density forecasts of nine major exchange rates vis-a-vis the US dollar over the period 1976-2015. We find that modelling parameter time variation is needed for an accurate calibration of forecast confidence...
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Evidence on the effectiveness of FX interventions is either limited to short horizons or hampered by debatable identification. We address these limitations by identifying a structural vector autoregressive model for the daily frequency with an external instrument. Applying this approach to the...
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We construct a measure of the short-term world interest rate using principal component analysis. Drawing on real … interest rate data for 18 OECD countries for the period 1985 - 2008, persistent deviations from the world interest rate that … that a rise in conditional consumption growth volatility relative to the rest of the world reduces the foreign exchange …
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We revisit medium- to long-run exchange rate determination, focusing on the role of international investment positions. To do so, we make use of a new econometric framework accounting for conditional long-run homogeneity in heterogeneous dynamic panel data models. In particular, in our model the...
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