We show that the excessive use of hidden orders causes artificial price pressures and abnormal asset returns. Using a simple game-theoretical setting, we demonstrate that this effect naturally arises from mis-coordination in trading schedules between traders, when suppliers of liquidity do not...

There has been mixed evidence regarding the existence of rational bubbles in the foreign exchange markets. Standard unit root and cointegration tests are criticized for their low power to detect rational bubbles that periodically collapse. This paper introduces recently developed sequential unit...

We explore whether modelling parameter time variation improves the point, interval and density forecasts of nine major exchange rates vis-a-vis the US dollar over the period 1976-2015. We find that modelling parameter time variation is needed for an accurate calibration of forecast confidence...

We investigate the extent to which the effect of the 2018/2019 US import tariff hikes on US (post-tariff) import prices was offset by the concurrent appreciation of the US dollar and trace the source of the appreciation back to US trade policy itself. The dollar response to trade policy...

In this paper we introduce two measures, the Systemic Liquidity Buffer (SLB) and the Systemic Liquidity Shortfall (SLS) to assess liquidity in the banking system. The SLB takes an aggregated perspective on liquidity risks in the banking system. In contrast, the SLS focusses on the problematic...

The Eurosystem purchased €178 billion of corporate bonds between June 2016 and December 2018 under the Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP). Did these purchases lead to a deterioration of liquidity conditions in the corporate bond market, thus raising concerns about unintended...