Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 1,367
Cover Image
The dynamic impact of macroeconomic news on long-term inflation expectations
Hachula, Michael; Nautz, Dieter - 2017
Well-anchored inflation expectations should not react to short-term oriented macroeconomic news. This paper analyzes the dynamic response of inflation expectations to macro news shocks in a structural VAR model. As identification of structural macro news shocks is controversial, we use a proxy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011647611
Cover Image
Long-run expectations of households
Breunig, Christoph; Grabova, Iuliia; Haan, Peter; … - 2019
The rational expectations assumption, e.g. in life-cycle models and portfolio-choice models, prescribes agents to have model-consistent beliefs and to avoid systematic prediction errors. In reality, justi cation and identification of expectations are nontrivial. One way to solve this problem is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012139064
Cover Image
Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations
Enders, Zeno; Kleemann, Michael; Müller, Gernot J. - 2017
We assess whether "undue optimism" (Pigou) contributes to business cycle fluctuations. In our analysis, optimism (or pessimism) pertains to total factor productivity which determines economic activity in the long run. Optimism shocks are perceived changes in productivity which do not actually...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011649164
Cover Image
Identifying time variability in stock and interest rate dependence
Stein, Michael; Islami, Mevlud; Lindemann, Jens - 2012
-varying correlation ; regime transition ; multivariate GARCH ; smooth transition ; cross-asset correlation ; non-linear estimation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009625556
Cover Image
Inflation expectations, inflation target credibility and the COVID-19 pandemic : new evidence from Germany
Coleman, Winnie; Nautz, Dieter - 2021
Using the exact wording of the ECB's definition of price-stability, we started a representative online survey of German citizens in January 2019 that is designed to measure long-term inflation expectations and the credibility of the inflation target. Our results indicate that credibility has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012590362
Cover Image
Inflation target credibility in times of high inflation
Coleman, Winnie; Nautz, Dieter - 2022
We use a representative online survey to investigate the inflation expectations of German consumers and the credibility of the ECB's inflation target during the recent high inflation period. We find that credibility has trended downwards since summer 2021, reaching an all-time low in April 2022....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013285915
Cover Image
Uncertainty about QE effects when an interest rate peg is anticipated
Gerke, Rafael; Giesen, Sebastian; Kienzler, Daniel - 2018
After hitting the lower bound on interest rates, the Eurosystem engaged in a public sector purchase programme (PSPP) and forward guidance (FG). We use prior and posterior predictive analysis to evaluate the importance of parameter uncertainty in an analysis of these policies. We model FG as an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011846905
Cover Image
Households' probabilistic inflation expectations in high-inflation regimes
Becker, Christoph; Dürsch, Peter; Eife, Thomas A.; … - 2023
household surveys use a response scale that is tailored towards low-inflation regimes. Using data from a randomized controlled …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014472800
Cover Image
Households' financial resilience, risk perceptions, and financial literacy : evidence from a survey experiment
Bucher-Koenen, Tabea; Fessler, Pirmin; Silgoner, Maria … - 2023 - This version: 21 December 2023
future events on households’ financial situation. Households are asked to assess specific risks for their own household … (treatment) or for a household with similar characteristics (control). On average, households assign a lower probability to … shocks that negatively affect personal finances if asked for their own household compared to a similar household. We do not …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014473206
Cover Image
Households' expectations and regional COVID-19 dynamics
Cato, Misina; Schmidt, Tobias - 2023 - 16.01.2023
In this paper we analyze how consumers in Germany updated expectations about in aflation in response to the COVID-19 outbreak. We use a fixed effects model to estimate the effect of regional exposure to COVID-19 cases, the stringency of restriction measures and local unemployment rates on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014227597