veteran traders, we formalize this intuitive conjecture as a proven proposition in a simple model. This agreement to disagree … less experienced traders. As in a fraction of the uniform-experience literature, lack of short-selling makes room for the … success of such bubble schemes. This previous literature did not allow for persistent effects of experience on beliefs and …

, national unemployment and national business conditions, I measure individual-specific experiences as weighted averages of these … variables over the respondents' lifetime, respectively. I find that experience significantly predicts respondents' expectations … aggregating past information. The empirical model also allows for heterogeneity with respect to observed socio …

experience. We propose the interpretation that households obtain inflation numbers from the media, but their 'economic model' is …Based on a new survey of German households, we investigate the role that information channels and lifetime experience … experience of these variables. Similarly, the expected response of inflation to a change in the interest rate is also shaped by …