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This paper introduces an axiomatic model of decision making where a person's subjective judgment as to the likelihood of different states of nature depends upon her anticipated payoff in those states. In the resulting representation the payoff consequences of an event affect beliefs as if they...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008859568
positive ambiguity attitudes documented in experiments. We prove that our baseline representation, Boolean expected utility … Marinacci, 2004), which drops uncertainty aversion from maxmin expected utility (Gilboa and Schmeidler, 1989), while extensions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012064758
Economists often estimate economic models on data and use the point estimates as a stand-in for the truth when studying the model’s implications for optimal decision-making. This practice ignores model ambiguity, exposes the decision problem to misspecification, and ultimately leads to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014487318
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Bayes' statistical rule remains the status quo for modeling belief updating in both normative and descriptive models of behavior under uncertainty. Recent research has questioned the use of Bayes' rule in descriptive models of behavior, presenting evidence that people overweight 'good news'...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011542204
We design and implement a novel experimental test of subjective expected utility theory and its generalizations. Our … sample of the US population. We find that a majority of subjects’ choices are consistent with maximization of some utility … function, but not with subjective utility theory. The theory is tested by gauging how subjects respond to price changes. A …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012126236
based on a weighted average of expected utility (EU) and the MaxiMin criterion. I first show that more weight on the worst … not clear in general, but depends qualitatively on the weight given to MaxiMin: For the quadratic utility case …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013428479
We challenge the standard definition of economic rationality as consistency by making use of a novel distinction between axioms of decision theory: consistency and preference axioms. We argue that this distinction has been overlooked by the literature and, as a result, evidence that consistency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014323610
Loss aversion postulates that people prefer avoiding losses over acquiring gains of equal size. It is a central part of prospect theory and, according to Daniel Kahneman, “the most significant contribution of psychology to behavioral economics” (Kahneman, 2011, p. 300). It has powerful...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014487321