We show that financial crises are preceded by changes in specific types of narrative information contained in newspaper article titles. Our novel international dataset and the resulting empirical evidence are gathered by integrating information from a large panel of economic news articles in...

The Global Financial Safety Net (GFSN) - the institutions and arrangements that provide short-term crisis finance - has turned into a highly complex, uncoordinated system of global, multilateral, and bilateral instruments. The present paper elaborates on a composite index of the GFSN to analyse...

This paper contributes to the literature on early warning indicators by applying a Bayesian model averaging approach. Our analysis, based on Austrian data, is carried out in two steps: First, we construct a quarterly financial stress index (AFSI) quantifying the level of stress in the Austrian...

We use a Diamond/Dybvig-based model with two banks operating in separate regions connected by a common asset market in which banks and sophisticated depositors invest. We study the effect of a potential run (crisis) and subsequent fire sales on the asset price in both the crisis and no-crisis...

A growing literature stresses the importance of the “global financial cycle”, a common global movement in asset prices and credit conditions, for emerging market economies (EMEs). It is argued that one of the key drivers of this global cycle is monetary policy in the U.S., which is...