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Market sentiment, financial fragility, and economic activity : the role of corporate securities issuance

Dieckelmann, Daniel - 2021

Using new quarterly U.S. data for the past 120 years, I show that sudden reversals in equity and credit market sentiment approximated by several measures of corporate securities issuance are highly predictive of banking crises and recessions. Deviations in equity issuance from historical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012431742

Buried in the vaults of central banks : monetary gold hoarding and the slide into the Great Depression

Karau, Sören - 2020 - This draft: October 2020

I study whether monetary gold hoarding was the main cause of the Great Depression in a structural VAR analysis. The notion that monetary forces played an important role in bringing about the depression is well established in the narrative literature, but has more recently met some skepticism by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012405992

The effects of US monetary policy shocks : applying external instrument identification to a dynamic factor model

Kerssenfischer, Mark - 2017

Dynamic factor models and external instrument identification are two recent advances in the empirical macroeconomic literature. This paper combines the two approaches in order to study the effects of monetary policy shocks. I use this novel framework to re-examine the effects found by Forni and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011636064

Divisia monetary aggregates for a heterogeneous euro area

Brill, Maximilian; Nautz, Dieter; Sieckmann, Lea - 2019 - This version: June 25, 2019

We introduce a Divisia monetary aggregate for the euro area that accounts for the heterogeneity across member countries both, in terms of interest rates and the decomposition of monetary assets. In most of the euro area countries, the difference between the growth rates of the country-specific...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012023395

Banking market structure and macroeconomic stability : are low-income countries special?

Bremus, Franziska; Buch, Claudia M. - 2014

Does the structure of banking markets affect macroeconomic volatility and, if yes, is this link different in low … markets affects macroeconomic volatility. Our research has three main findings. First, we study the relevance of granular … effects: if the degree of market concentration in the banking sector is sufficiently high, idiosyncratic volatility at the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010471853

Did output gap measurement improve over time?

Chiu, Adrian; Wieladek, Tomasz - 2012

We study whether the accuracy of real-time estimates of the output gap produced by the OECD has improved over time by examining a panel dataset on real-time output gap revisions for 15 countries from 1991 Q1 - 2005 Q4. We use a simple panel data regression and a state space model, with common...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009559228

Uncertainty shocks and inflation dynamics in the U.S.

Haque, Qazi; Magnusson, Leandro M. - 2020

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012601651

Empirical evidence on the dynamics of investment under uncertainty in the U.S.

Haque, Qazi; Magnusson, Leandro M.; Tomioka, Kazuki - 2019

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012208719

A novel housing price misalignment indicator for Germany

Hertrich, Markus - 2019

From 2014 until present, housing prices in Germany have been rising faster than consumer prices in all quarters except one, raising concerns about an excessive over-heating of the housing market. To assess the vulnerability of the German housing market to a future realignment of prices or even a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012098990

Foreign exchange interventions under a one-sided target zone regime and the Swiss franc

Hertrich, Markus - 2020

From September 2011 to January 2015, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) implemented a minimum exchange rate regime (i.e. a one-sided target zone) vis-a-vis the euro to fight deflationary pressures in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis. During this period of unconventional monetary policy,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012197889

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