is evidence for interdependency between recessions and banking crises using both non-parametric tests and unconditional …It is widely suggested that there is some relationship between banking crises and recessions. We assess whether there … predict banking crises and recessions and if these variables can explain the previously observed interdependence. Inclusion of …

comprehensive real-time forecasting exercise for recessions in the US. Moreover, we propose a novel smooth transition modelling …

The equity premium follows a pronounced v-shape pattern around the beginning of recessions. It sharply drops into … negative territory just before business cycle peaks and then strongly recovers as the recession unfolds. Recessions are … preceded by an inverted yield curve. Thus probit models using the term spread as predictor time the beginning of recessions …

. Crises and recessions often occur independently of domestic leverage, making the credit-to-GDP gap a deficient early … sentiment approximated by several measures of corporate securities issuance are highly predictive of banking crises and … recessions. Deviations in equity issuance from historical averages also help to explain economic activity over the business cycle …