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revisit claims in the literature that money growth is Granger-causal for inflation at low frequencies. Applying frequency …-specific tests in a comprehensive system setup for euro-area data we consider various theoretical predictors of inflation. A general … Granger-causal for low-frequency inflation movements, and all variables affect money growth. We therefore interpret opposite …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009774367
most important factor driving uncertainty about inflation. In contrast, variations in financial intermediaries' net worth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011846905
The ECB's one size monetary policy is unlikely to fit all euro area members at all times, which raises the question of how much monetary policy stress this causes at the national level. I measure monetary policy stress as the difference between actual ECB interest rates and Taylor-rule implied...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010349426
Our paper studies the relationship between money growth and consumer price inflation in the euro area using wavelet … analysis. Wavelet analysis allows to account for variations in the money growth-inflation relationship both across the … frequency spectrum and across time. We find evidence of strong comovements between money growth and inflation at low frequencies …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010433361
mandate of price stability in the current low-inflation, low-interest-rate scenario. This paper contributes to the existing … anchoring of inflation expectations. I carry out my analysis based on a high-frequency identification and the estimation of a … forward guidance, i.e. forecasters revise their long-run expectations upwards. Consequently, inflation increases, which …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012305860
We study the distributional consequences of housing price, bond price and equity price increases for Euro Area households using data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS). The capital gains from bond price and equity price increases turn out to be concentrated among relatively...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011316626
Did the decline in inflation rates from 2012 to 2015 and the low levels of market-based inflation expectations lead to … de-anchored inflation dynamics in the euro area? This paper is the first time-varying event study to investigate the … reaction of inflation-linked swap (ILS) rates - a market-based measure of inflation expectations - to macroeconomic surprises …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011456474
We tackle two questions in this paper: In the sovereign debt crisis, what moves the euro area inflation outlook and has … the firm anchoring of medium to long-term inflation expectations been touched? Deriving densities from a new data set on … options on the euro area harmonized index of consumer prices provides us with the full distribution of inflation expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010415789
Against the background of the recent housing boom and bust in countries such as Spain and Ireland, we investigate in this paper the macroeconomic consequences of cross-border banking in monetary unions such as the euro area. For this purpose, we incorporate in an otherwise standard two-region...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011299044
We study cross-country differences in monetary policy transmission across the large four euro-area countries (France, Germany, Italy and Spain) using a large Bayesian vector autoregressive model with endogenous prior selection. Drawing both on the posterior distributions of the cross-country...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011444752