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Correlated defaults and systemic risk are clearly priced in credit portfolio securities such as CDOs or index CDSs. In … correlated defaults primarily impact the CDS prices of firms with an overall low CDS level. (III) Idiosyncratic risk factors for …
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-variations in the relationship between systematic risk factors and corporate bond spreads. First, we apply Bayesian model averaging … to a battery of candidate variables for determining meaningful systematic risk factors. Second, Markov switching … market conditions, on the other. Our evidence for market indices of euro-denominated bonds suggests that systematic risk …
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Using arbitrage-free affine models, we analyze the dynamics of German bond yields and risk premia for the period 1999 … macroeconomic factors allows us to analyze their effect on the risk aversion of market participants. Looking at the impact of the … recent crises, we see that particularly the market prices of risk for the real activity and the price factor changed most …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009656194
Since the influential paper of Stock and Watson (2002), the dynamic factor model (DFM) has been widely used for forecasting macroeconomic key variables such as GDP. However, the DFM has some weaknesses. For nowcasting, the dynamic factor model is modified by using the mixed data sampling...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011566828
We propose a novel time-varying parameters mixed-frequency dynamic factor model which is integrated into a dynamic model averaging framework for macroeconomic nowcasting. Our suggested model can efficiently deal with the nature of the real-time data flow as well as parameter uncertainty and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012119825
sovereign debt exposures and the implications of sovereign exposures for bank risk. Our main findings are as follows. First … impact of sovereign bond holdings on bank risk. This result could indicate the widespread absence of marking-to-market for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009787584
We apply Bayesian Model Averaging and a frequentistic model space analysis to assess the pricing-determinants of credit default swaps (CDS). Our study focuses on the complete model space of plausible models covering most of the variables and specifications used elsewhere in the literature,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011561899
loss, bond risk premium and liquidity premium components. The approach focuses on establishing the bond risk premium using … the equity risk premium and the hedge ratio, which are estimated using a dividend discount model and a BEKK-GARCH model …, French, Spanish and Italian firms. The results show that the bond risk premium is the largest component. While the expected …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010458538