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Short-term forecasting economic activity in Germany : a supply and demand side system of bridge equations
Pinkwart, Nicolas - 2018
taking into account the supply or production side and the demand side of GDP. The GDP figures calculated by the two sides … usually yield different results and the official GDP release is somewhere in between. We make use of this statistical … procedure by separately modeling the two sides of GDP in a system of bridge equations at the most disaggregate level available …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011900715
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Characterizing the financial cycle : evidence from a frequency domain analysis
Strohsal, Till; Proaño Acosta, Christian; Wolters, Jürgen - 2015
A growing body of literature argues that the financial cycle is considerably longer in duration and larger in amplitude than the business cycle and that its distinguishing features became more pronounced over time. This paper proposes an empirical approach suitable to test these hypotheses. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011299043
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Weather adjustment of economic output
Schreiber, Sven - 2017 - This version: February 2017
output (GDP). …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011614063
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Higher-order income risk over the business cycle
Busch, Christopher; Ludwig, Alexander - 2020
We extend the canonical income process with persistent and transitory risk to shock distributions with left-skewness and excess kurtosis, to which we refer as higher-order risk. We estimate our extended income process by GMM for household data from the United States. We find countercyclical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012215285
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Financial variables as predictors of real growth vulnerability
Reichlin, Lucrezia; Ricco, Giovanni; Hasenzagl, Thomas - 2020 - This version: 30th October 2019
leverage. We find that (i) although the spreads correlate with the left tail of the conditional distribution of GDP growth … the left quantile of the GDP growth distribution in the 2008 recession; (iii) measures of excess leverage conceptually …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012173525
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Public R&D investment in economic crises
Pellens, Maikel; Peters, Bettina; Hud, Martin; Rammer, … - 2020 - This version: November 2020
We study the cyclicality of public R&D in 28 OECD countries (1995-2017). While procyclical on average, public R&D reacts asymmetrically over different phases of the business cycle and becomes acyclical during recessions. It is also heterogeneous across countries: Innovation leaders and followers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012390728
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Equity premium predictability over the business cycle
Mönch, Emanuel; Stein, Tobias - 2021
The equity premium follows a pronounced v-shape pattern around the beginning of recessions. It sharply drops into negative territory just before business cycle peaks and then strongly recovers as the recession unfolds. Recessions are preceded by an inverted yield curve. Thus probit models using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012607106
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Did output gap measurement improve over time?
Chiu, Adrian; Wieladek, Tomasz - 2012
We study whether the accuracy of real-time estimates of the output gap produced by the OECD has improved over time by examining a panel dataset on real-time output gap revisions for 15 countries from 1991 Q1 - 2005 Q4. We use a simple panel data regression and a state space model, with common...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009559228
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Household search and the aggregate labor market
Mankart, Jochen; Oikonomou, Rigas - 2015
We develop a theoretical model with labor market frictions, incomplete financial markets and with households which have two members. Households face unemployment risks but their members adjust their labor supplies to insure against unemployment. We use the model to explain the cyclical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011312576
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Disentangling economic recessions and depressions
Candelon, Bertrand; Metiu, Norbert; Straetmans, Stefan - 2013
We propose a nonparametric test that distinguishes “depressions” and “booms” from ordinary recessions and expansions. Depressions and booms are defined as coming from another underlying process than recessions and expansions. We find four depressions and booms in the NBER business cycle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010202869