uncertainty is closely related to the output growth uncertainty. In forming expectations, individual forecasters seem to behave …

find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB’s SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … useful information. By contrast, incorporating expectations derived from financial market prices or those of firms and …

Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity …. In this paper, we focus on expectations heterogeneity among professional forecasters. We first present stylized facts and … discuss theoretical explanations for heterogeneous expectations. We then provide an overview of the empirical evidence …

comprehensive real-time forecasting exercise for recessions in the US. Moreover, we propose a novel smooth transition modelling …

We present a comprehensive disaggregate approach for short-term forecasting economic activity in Germany by explicitly …

In many forward-looking macroeconomic models, such as the New Keynesian model, firms' expectations about the future … identification issues faced by previous empirical studies. The results suggest that firms' expectations play a key role in their … price-setting behaviour, with a coefficient on firm's expectations consistent with the discount factor typically assumed in …

-based inflation expectations that are notoriously difficult to beat. …