The game-theoretical analysis of this paper shows that stress tests that cover the entire banking sector (macro stress tests) can be performed by institutional supervisors to improve welfare. In a multi-receiver framework of Bayesian persuasion we show that a banking authority can create value...

Using a unique data set on German banks' loans to the German real economy, we investigate banks' credit risk. This data set includes the volume of loans per bank and industry as well as the corresponding write-downs. Our empirical study for the period 2003-2011 yields the following results: (i)...

In this paper, we consider models of price-mediated contagion in a banking networkof common asset holdings. For these models, the literature proposed two alternativeclasses of liquidation dynamics:threshold dynamics(banks liquidate their invest-ment portfolios only after they have defaulted),...

Using unique supervisory survey data on the impact of a hypothetical interest rate shock on German banks, we analyse price and quantity effects on banks' net interest margin components under different balance sheet assumptions. In the first year, the cross-sectional variation of banks' simulated...

This paper exploits a recent and granular data set for 1,500 German LSIs to conduct a residential mortgage stress testing exercise. To account for model uncertainty when modeling PD dynamics we use a benchmark-constrained Bayesian model averaging approach that combines standard BMA with a...

This paper deals with both system-wide and banks' internal stress tests. For system-wide stress tests it describes the evolution over time, compares the stress test design in major jurisdictions, and discusses academic research. System-wide stress tests have gained in importance and nowadays...

In this paper we study the impact of model uncertainty, which occurs when linking a stress scenario to default probabilities, on reduced-form credit risk stress testing. This type of uncertainty is omnipresent in most macroeconomic stress testing applications due to short time series for banks'...