Evidence on the effectiveness of FX interventions is either limited to short horizons or hampered by debatable identification. We address these limitations by identifying a structural vector autoregressive model for the daily frequency with an external instrument. Applying this approach to the...

The British foreign exchange reserves decreased by 40 percent during the period August 1996 - December 1999 although the Pound Sterling is considered a floating exchange rate since it left the EMS in 1992. Since changes in the level of foreign exchange reserves are usually taken as indicators...

We address the question of whether various types of speculative investor correctly anticipate future USD/EUR currency movements or whether they tend rather to react to past exchange rate movements. Throughout the analysis, we differentiate between large and small traders, and an upper bound of...

We explore whether modelling parameter time variation improves the point, interval and density forecasts of nine major exchange rates vis-a-vis the US dollar over the period 1976-2015. We find that modelling parameter time variation is needed for an accurate calibration of forecast confidence...

This paper presents a new approach for modelling the connectedness between asset returns. We adapt the measure of Diebold and Yılmaz (2014), which is based on the forecast error variance decomposition of a VAR model. However, their connectedness measure hinges on critical assumptions with...

I show that the majority of short-term nominal exchange rate fluctuations among large economies can be explained by changes in the relative stance of their monetary policies. Adapting recently developed instrumental variable techniques for shock identification, I find that monetary policy shocks...

During the 2008 financial crisis, increasing risk and spillovers became a main concern for policy makers and banks. In addition, changes in sovereign and bank risk are believed to have had strong effects on world-wide exchange rates. This paper aims to analyze these dynamics empirically. We...

This paper examines the reasons for the declining path of inflation since the 1970s. In particular, it focusses on the role of globalization - covering both changes in the global market structure and technical and structural developments in trade and production. In addition, the paper deals with...

This paper examines the reasons for the declining path of inflation since the 1970s. In particular, it focusses on the role of globalization - covering both changes in the global market structure and technical and structural developments in trade and production. In addition, the paper deals with...

Foreign exchange rates and capital movements are expected to be closely related to each other as international capital markets become more and more integrated. To account for this fact we construct an index of real effective exchange rates as a weighted average of cross-country asset price...