This paper uses the European Monetary Union (EMU) as a natural experiment to investigate whether more effective monetary policy reduces the persistence of inflation. Taking into account the fractional integration of inflation, we confirm that inflation dynamics differed considerably across Euro...

Long-term inflation expectations taken from the Survey of Professional Forecasters are a major source of information for monetary policy. Unfortunately, they are published only on a quarterly basis. This paper investigates the daily information content of inflation-linked swap rates for the next...

This paper is devoted to a new estimation of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) for the West German Economy 1980 to 1998. The novelty of the paper is the estimation of a time-varying NAIRU for West Germany employing the Kalman method together with confidence intervals...

The failure to predict the surge in inflation in 2021 raises questions about whether we are better equipped to anticipate a future decline in inflation. What tools do we intend to use for predicting the trajectory of inflation? Are we still primarily relying on survey data regarding inflation...

This paper examines the reasons for the declining path of inflation since the 1970s. In particular, it focusses on the role of globalization - covering both changes in the global market structure and technical and structural developments in trade and production. In addition, the paper deals with...

The price of vacant land zoned for housing is expected to be tightly linked to housing prices. In informationally efficient markets, vacant lot price movements should not lag changes in housing prices. In practice, however, the leading role of housing appreciation with respect to vacant lot...

This paper evaluates the quality of survey forecasts, their accuracy and unbiasedness, and their overall consistency. The paper also tries to find out whether the relationships between economic variables are the same in survey data and in the actual data. In other words we analyze whether the...

This paper studies professional forecasts on a micro level using three alternative data sets. The analysis is mainly based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasts for the euro area, but for comparison, Consensus Economics survey and the Survey of Professional Forecasts for the US are also...

We analyse the short-term dynamics of Polish economy with a prominent state-dependent pricing mechanism of Dotsey, King and Wolman (1999). We compare macroeconomic evidence of price rigidity in a small-scale DSGE model with a state-dependent Phillips curve (SDPC) derived by Bakhshi, Khan and...