In this paper we provide evidence on the existence of short-run trade diversion effects as a consequence of tariff shocks. We exploit sudden policy changes in the context of the trade dispute between the US and China. Based on a data set covering monthly product-level information on US imports...

This paper suggests a quantifiable multi-sector-multi-country economic model of goods and services production and consumption. It calibrates overall (variable and fixed) costs to market-specific sales by sector and decomposes these costs into observable and unobservable components. In an...

The UK economy has experienced significant macroeconomic adjustments following the 2016 referendum on its withdrawal from the European Union. This paper develops and estimates a small open economy model with tradable and non-tradable sectors to characterise these adjustments. We demonstrate that...

This paper studies the economic and political effects of a large trade shock in agriculture – the grain invasion from the Americas – in Prussia during the first globalization (1871-1913). We show that this shock accelerated the structural change in the Prussian economy through migration of...

How does export liberalization affect firm location choice and the spatial concentration of economic activity? We address these questions using the geo-coordinates of Chinese manufacturing firms and find that export widens inter-city and intra-city spatial disparities by reinforcing initially...

Employment responses to the COVID-19 crisis differed widely across German local labour markets at the beginning of the pandemic, with differences in short-time work rates of up to 20 percentage points. We show that digital capital, and to a lesser extent working-from-home, were essential for the...

German-Pakistani relations cannot be analyzed in isolation of the larger domestic and international trajectories, economic and political, on both sides of the partnership. After a recent democratic power transfer in 2013, Pakistan continues to face complex challenges. The instable security...

In this paper, we discuss the agricultural trade between Brazil and China. We select a set of key commodities and debate whether there are obstacles or opportunities to increase trade between the two economies. Following an institutional and historical analysis, we provide a statistical...

Modern regional trade agreements focus on promoting bilateral exchange mostly by lowering non-tariff barriers to trade. But do existing regional trade agreements actually deliver what they promise? This paper argues that existing results in the literature are upward biased because of measurement...

Many studies use tariffs to measure changes in trade policy. This paper shows that standard sources for tariffs suffer from substantial measurement error due to misreporting and the resulting false imputation: Countries fail to report tariffs every year and missing data are more prevalent for...