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Comparing models for forecasting the yield curve
Matsumura, Marco Shinobu; Moreira, Ajax - 2015
The evolution of the yields of different maturities is related and can be described by a reduced number of commom latent factors. Multifactor interest rate models of the finance literature, common factor models of the time series literature and others use this property. Each model has advantages...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012053243
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Impact of macro shocks on sovereign default probabilities
Matsumura, Marco Shinobu - 2015
We use macro finance models to study the interaction between macro variables and the Brazilian sovereign yield curve using daily data. We calculate the model implied default probabilities and a measure of the impact of macro shocks on the probabilities. An extension of the Dai-Singleton...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012039415
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Extreme inflation and time-varying consumption growth
Dergunov, Ilya; Meinerding, Christoph; Schlag, Christian - 2019
In a parsimonious regime switching model, expected consumption growth varies over time. Adding in ation as a conditioning variable, we uncover two states in which expected consumption growth is low, one with high and one with negative expected in ation. Embedded in a general equilibrium asset...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012000570
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Shocks to transition risk
Meinerding, Christoph; Schüler, Yves; Zhang, Philipp - 2023 - December 7, 2022
We propose and implement a method to identify shocks to transition risk, addressing key challenges regarding its definition and measurement. Our shocks are instances where significant new information about the economic relevance of climate change increases the valuation of green firms over brown...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014227599
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Securities lending and information acquisition
Greppmair, Stefan; Jank, Stephan; Saffi, Pedro A. C.; … - 2024
Using microdata on stock-level lending positions from German mutual funds, we show that active funds use the equity lending market to obtain information about short sale demand. Funds reduce long positions in response to these demand signals, which allows fund managers to front-run public...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014501098
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Inflation, deflation, and uncertainty : what drives euro area option-implied inflation expectations and are they still anchored in the sovereign debt crisis?
Scharnagl, Michael; Stapf, Jelena - 2014
growing uncertainty especially since the intensification of the sovereign debt crisis in mid-2011. Around the same time the … uncertainty reveals market participants concerns about possible extreme inflation or deflation outcomes in the future. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010415789
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Can macroeconomic variables account for the term structure of sovereign spreads? : studying the Brazilian case
Matsumura, Marco Shinobu; Moreira, Ajax - 2015
The objective of our work is to study the term structure of interest rates and the sovereign credit spreads of emerging markets. We develop a model from term structure, credit risk and vector autoregressive models, based on the articles by Ang and Piazzesi (2003) and Ang, Dong and Piazzesi...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012025179
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Return differences between DAX ETFs and the benchmark DAX
Schmidhammer, Christoph - 2021
For the DAX index market, this paper analyses the development of return differences between exchange traded funds (ETFs) and the DAX index from the perspective of long-term investors. The newly introduced methodology provides the opportunity to continuously identify long-term costs of passively...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012607112
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Uncertainty shocks and financial crisis indicators
Hristov, Nikolay; Roth, Markus - 2019
The current paper broadens the understanding for the role of uncertainty in the context of a macroeconomic environment …. It focuses on the implications of uncertainty shocks on indicators that tend to precede financial crises. In an empirical … analysis we show for a set of four euro area countries that negative uncertainty shocks, while accompanied by favorable effects …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012102657
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Inflation anchoring in the euro area
Speck, Christian - 2016
Did the decline in inflation rates from 2012 to 2015 and the low levels of market-based inflation expectations lead to de-anchored inflation dynamics in the euro area? This paper is the first time-varying event study to investigate the reaction of inflation-linked swap (ILS) rates - a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011456474