Showing 1 - 10 of 236
. Previous literature has highlighted the role of an economy's "structure" - such as its inflation volatility, inflation rate …, forecasts predicting how a given exchange rate movement will impact inflation at a specific point in time should take into …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011671018
find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB’s SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … (not always for the countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012792526
techniques can help to improve the nowcast of monthly German inflation in real time. Our nowcasting exercise targets three … the lowest aggregation level underlying official German inflation, such as those of butter and coffee beans. We show that … demonstrate that these scanner-based price indices improve inflation nowcasts at this very narrow level, notably already after the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014467924
, we demonstrate that effort dampens the response of inflation to exogenous shocks. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012134398
This paper evaluates the quality of survey forecasts, their accuracy and unbiasedness, and their overall consistency. The paper also tries to find out whether the relationships between economic variables are the same in survey data and in the actual data. In other words we analyze whether the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503030
Survey of Professional Forecasts for the US are also investigated. We examine internal consistency of individual inflation … respondents. Our analysis indicates that individual forecasters deviate systematically from each other. Moreover, inflation … according to the hybrid specification of the New Keynesian Phillips curve. The results also indicate that inflation uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503031
We estimate the effects of a negative asymmetric demand shock on the real exchange rate for the euro area vis-à-vis the United States, Canada, and Japan by state-dependent sign-restricted local projection methods. We find a real depreciation when interest rates are not at the ZLB, but also when...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014320485
Industrial prices of goods and services are a function of costs of production and of the mark-up that firms apply on those costs. If these prices relate to goods that are traded internationally, they will also be influenced by the price at which those goods are exchanged in international...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011517928
Yes, indeed; at least for macroeconomic policy interaction. We examine a Neo-Classical economy and provide the conditions for policy arrangements to successfully stabilize the economy when agents have either rational or adaptive expectations. For a contemporaneous-data monetary policy rule, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011513023
Our paper studies the relationship between money growth and consumer price inflation in the euro area using wavelet … analysis. Wavelet analysis allows to account for variations in the money growth-inflation relationship both across the … frequency spectrum and across time. We find evidence of strong comovements between money growth and inflation at low frequencies …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010433361