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This paper provides an explanation for the observed decline of the exchange rate pass-through into import prices by modeling the effects of financial market integration on the optimal choice of the pricing currency in the context of rigid nominal goods prices. Contrary to previous literature, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011294137
We investigate the extent to which the effect of the 2018/2019 US import tariff hikes on US (post-tariff) import prices was offset by the concurrent appreciation of the US dollar and trace the source of the appreciation back to US trade policy itself. The dollar response to trade policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012792730
We estimate the effects of a negative asymmetric demand shock on the real exchange rate for the euro area vis-à-vis the United States, Canada, and Japan by state-dependent sign-restricted local projection methods. We find a real depreciation when interest rates are not at the ZLB, but also when...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014320485
Yes, indeed; at least for macroeconomic policy interaction. We examine a Neo-Classical economy and provide the conditions for policy arrangements to successfully stabilize the economy when agents have either rational or adaptive expectations. For a contemporaneous-data monetary policy rule, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011513023
Our paper studies the relationship between money growth and consumer price inflation in the euro area using wavelet … analysis. Wavelet analysis allows to account for variations in the money growth-inflation relationship both across the … frequency spectrum and across time. We find evidence of strong comovements between money growth and inflation at low frequencies …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010433361
A major challenge for monetary policy has been predicting how exchange rate movements will impact inflation. We propose …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011384119
This paper uses a "trendy" approach to understand UK inflation dynamics. It focuses on the time series to isolate a low …-frequency and slow-moving component of inflation (the trend) from deviations around this trend. We find that this slow-moving trend … explains a substantial share of UK inflation dynamics. International prices are significantly correlated with the short …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011664348
. Previous literature has highlighted the role of an economy's "structure" - such as its inflation volatility, inflation rate …, forecasts predicting how a given exchange rate movement will impact inflation at a specific point in time should take into …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011671018
In a parsimonious regime switching model, expected consumption growth varies over time. Adding in ation as a conditioning variable, we uncover two states in which expected consumption growth is low, one with high and one with negative expected in ation. Embedded in a general equilibrium asset...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012000570
The failure to predict the surge in inflation in 2021 raises questions about whether we are better equipped to … anticipate a future decline in inflation. What tools do we intend to use for predicting the trajectory of inflation? Are we still … primarily relying on survey data regarding inflation expectations, and are we still employing a Calvo-type structure to model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014465012