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Long-term inflation expectations taken from the Survey of Professional Forecasters are a major source of information … information content of inflation-linked swap rates for the next survey outcome. Using a mixed data sampling approach, we find that … professionals account for the daily dynamics of inflation swap rates when they submit their long-term inflation expectations. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011922197
monetary policy reduces the persistence of inflation. Taking into account the fractional integration of inflation, we confirm … that inflation dynamics differed considerably across Euro area countries before the start of EMU. Since 1999, however …, results obtained from panel estimation indicate that the degree of long run inflation persistence has converged. In line with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003875991
Yes, indeed; at least for macroeconomic policy interaction. We examine a Neo-Classical economy and provide the conditions for policy arrangements to successfully stabilize the economy when agents have either rational or adaptive expectations. For a contemporaneous-data monetary policy rule, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011513023
Our paper studies the relationship between money growth and consumer price inflation in the euro area using wavelet … analysis. Wavelet analysis allows to account for variations in the money growth-inflation relationship both across the … frequency spectrum and across time. We find evidence of strong comovements between money growth and inflation at low frequencies …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010433361
A major challenge for monetary policy has been predicting how exchange rate movements will impact inflation. We propose …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011384119
This paper uses a "trendy" approach to understand UK inflation dynamics. It focuses on the time series to isolate a low …-frequency and slow-moving component of inflation (the trend) from deviations around this trend. We find that this slow-moving trend … explains a substantial share of UK inflation dynamics. International prices are significantly correlated with the short …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011664348
. Previous literature has highlighted the role of an economy's "structure" - such as its inflation volatility, inflation rate …, forecasts predicting how a given exchange rate movement will impact inflation at a specific point in time should take into …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011671018
In a parsimonious regime switching model, expected consumption growth varies over time. Adding in ation as a conditioning variable, we uncover two states in which expected consumption growth is low, one with high and one with negative expected in ation. Embedded in a general equilibrium asset...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012000570
The failure to predict the surge in inflation in 2021 raises questions about whether we are better equipped to … anticipate a future decline in inflation. What tools do we intend to use for predicting the trajectory of inflation? Are we still … primarily relying on survey data regarding inflation expectations, and are we still employing a Calvo-type structure to model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014465012
changes does not change much with inflation and does not react much to aggregate shocks; (vi) changes in inflation are mostly … consistent with the predictions of a menu cost model in a low inflation environment where idiosyncratic shocks are a more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013361901