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mandate of price stability in the current low-inflation, low-interest-rate scenario. This paper contributes to the existing … anchoring of inflation expectations. I carry out my analysis based on a high-frequency identification and the estimation of a … forward guidance, i.e. forecasters revise their long-run expectations upwards. Consequently, inflation increases, which …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012305860
The uncertainty of U.S. core inflation, measured by the stochastic volatility of forecast errors, has soared to a level … increase after a positive shock to core inflation uncertainty in a vector autoregression. Endogenous changes in household … inflation expectations help to understand the transmission mechanism through which an inflation uncertainty shock generates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436184
We propose a novel time-varying parameters mixed-frequency dynamic factor model which is integrated into a dynamic model averaging framework for macroeconomic nowcasting. Our suggested model can efficiently deal with the nature of the real-time data flow as well as parameter uncertainty and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012119825
To simultaneously consider mixed-frequency time series, their joint dynamics, and possible structural changes, we introduce a time-varying parameter mixed-frequency VAR. To keep our approach from becoming too complex, we implement time variation parsimoniously: only the intercepts and a common...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011903709
This paper empirically investigates the role of long-term inflation expectations for the monetary transmission … mechanism. In contrast to earlier studies, we confirm that U.S. long-term inflation expectations respond significantly to a … monetary policy shock. In line with a re-anchoring channel of monetary policy, we find that long-term inflation expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012311576
exchange rate and to the medium term interest rate are for the 1999-2004 period, the most important sources of inflation rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012024203
Well-anchored inflation expectations should not react to short-term oriented macroeconomic news. This paper analyzes … the dynamic response of inflation expectations to macro news shocks in a structural VAR model. As identification of … impact on U.S. long-term inflation expectations in the long run. In the short run, however, the degree of expectations de …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011647611
In a parsimonious regime switching model, expected consumption growth varies over time. Adding in ation as a conditioning variable, we uncover two states in which expected consumption growth is low, one with high and one with negative expected in ation. Embedded in a general equilibrium asset...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012000570
We introduce a dynamic panel threshold model to shed new light on the impact of inflation on long-term economic growth … industrialized countries, our results confirm the inflation targets of about 2% set by many central banks. For non …-industrialized countries, we estimate that inflation hampers growth if it exceeds 17%. Below this threshold, however, the impact of inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003876000
systematically understated. The effect rests on overstated inflation estimates due to imputed prices for disappearing goods and … in line with existing findings for France, the USA, and Japan (in different periods). We also find that services sectors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012440399