, operating income, and stock market returns. In addition, research also emphasizes the importance of earnings quality information … profit margin provide incremental information for predicting changes in future return on assets. After controlling for … contributes to the earnings quality literature by providing an approach as how to include this information into forecasts of …

bank’s own interest rate expectations. From a theoretical point of view, the latter should yield the highest forecast … view, appears to be at best of minor relevance empirically. -- Forecast Accuracy ; Density Forecasts ; Projections …

Recently, several institutions have increased their forecast horizons, and many institutions rely on their past … forecast errors to estimate measures of forecast uncertainty. This work addresses the question how the latter estimation can be … accomplished if there are only very few errors available for the new forecast horizons. It extends upon the results of Knüppel …

find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB’s SPF … and both point and density forecast are evaluated using real-time data vintages over 2001-2019. … and Consensus Economics compared to their counterparts that do not. The gains in forecast accuracy from incorporating …

Forecasts are useless whenever the forecast error variance fails to be smaller than the unconditional variance of the … forecast horizon h. Following Diebold and Mariano (DM, 1995) we propose a test based on the comparison of the mean …-squared error of the forecast and the sample variance. We show that the resulting test does not possess a limiting normal …