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inflation targeting, and the granting of operational independence to the Bank of England. In this paper we examine what impact …, if any, these events have had on inflation expectations. A series of Granger causality tests are used in order to examine … the causal relationship between a measure of prices and inflation expectations. We find evidence that the introduction of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003740743
anchoring of inflation expectations. I carry out my analysis based on a high-frequency identification and the estimation of a … mandate of price stability in the current low-inflation, low-interest-rate scenario. This paper contributes to the existing … forward guidance, i.e. forecasters revise their long-run expectations upwards. Consequently, inflation increases, which …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012305860
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012605787
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013369366
The uncertainty of U.S. core inflation, measured by the stochastic volatility of forecast errors, has soared to a level … increase after a positive shock to core inflation uncertainty in a vector autoregression. Endogenous changes in household … inflation expectations help to understand the transmission mechanism through which an inflation uncertainty shock generates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436184
, premium components are less reactive to inflation shocks, while real rate responses change their sign from positive to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012222610
macroeconomic effects. This finding requires inflation expectations to adjust counterfactually large. When modeling inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012510174
Inflation expectations are often found to depend on socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of households, such … impact of three sources of the demographic dependence of inflation expectations using data for Germany. Overall, our findings … suggest that household-specific inflation rates and group-specific news consumption accounts for the higher expectation gaps …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009777699
Well-anchored inflation expectations should not react to short-term oriented macroeconomic news. This paper analyzes … the dynamic response of inflation expectations to macro news shocks in a structural VAR model. As identification of … impact on U.S. long-term inflation expectations in the long run. In the short run, however, the degree of expectations de …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011647611
At the zero lower bound (ZLB), expectations about the future path of monetary or fiscal policy are crucial. We model expectations formation under level-k thinking, a form of bounded rationality introduced by García-Schmidt and Woodford (2019) and Farhi and Werning (2017), consistent with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012101259