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We extend the canonical income process with persistent and transitory risk to shock distributions with left …-skewness and excess kurtosis, to which we refer as higher-order risk. We estimate our extended income process by GMM for household … data from the United States. We find countercyclical variance and procyclical skewness of persistent shocks. All shock …
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The current paper broadens the understanding for the role of uncertainty in the context of a macroeconomic environment. It focuses on the implications of uncertainty shocks on indicators that tend to precede financial crises. In an empirical analysis we show for a set of four euro area countries...
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that such disturbances are important drivers of output fluctuations in both economies, we find the shock responses of …
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sensitive to scarcity and more volatile at high levels of reuse, highlighting the trade-off between the shock absorption and … shock amplification effects of collateral reuse. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012651538
Starting from an information process governed by a geometric Brownian motion we show that asset returns are predictable if the elasticity of the pricing kernel is not constant. Declining [Increasing] elasticity of the pricing kernel leads to mean reversion and negatively autocorrelated asset...
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term structure model to decompose bond excess returns into expected excess returns (risk premia) and the unexpected part …Bond excess returns can be predicted by macro factors, however, large parts remain still unexplained. We apply a novel …. In order to explore these risk premia and innovations, we complement macro variables by financial condition variables as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010436625