I propose a Bayesian quantile VAR to identify and assess the impact of uncertainty and certainty shocks, unifying Bloom … real economic activity growth, in line with a risk shock. Conversely, a certainty shock (a shock strongly decreasing …

portfolio, one for market risk and one for credit risk. Similar approaches are common in banks’ internal models for economic … capital. Although it is known that joint market and credit risk of certain investments can be larger than the sum of risks … holdings or CDS portfolios – are also affected. There are realistic conditions under which credit risk (represented by ratings …

The Value at Risk approach (VaR) is more and more used as a tool for risk measurement. The approach however has … shortcomings both from a theoretical and a practical point of view. VaR can be classified within existing concepts of risk … measurement: it is particularly interpretable as a special measure of shortfall risk. From that point of view VaR will be extended …

probabilities, on reduced-form credit risk stress testing. This type of uncertainty is omnipresent in most macroeconomic stress … testing applications due to short time series for banks' portfolio risk parameters and highly collinear macroeconomic … distributions and implied capital shortfalls by conducting a full-edged top-down credit risk stress test for over 1,500 German banks …

to estimate Growth at Risk as introduced in Adrian, Boyarchenko, and Giannone's (2019) seminal paper "Vulnerable Growth …

that time in general resilient to the default of large banks, i.e. did not exhibit substantial contagion risk. Even though …

adequacy related to credit risk. For the first time, it combines calibration of microprudential capital requirements and …/country-specific systematic factors, the model focuses on credit default concentration risk as a major source of large losses that may have … systemic impact. A test run using a sample of 12 systemically important German banks provides measures for systemic credit risk …