find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB’s SPF … and Consensus Economics compared to their counterparts that do not. The gains in forecast accuracy from incorporating … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide …

revisit claims in the literature that money growth is Granger-causal for inflation at low frequencies. Applying frequency …-specific tests in a comprehensive system setup for euro-area data we consider various theoretical predictors of inflation. A general … Granger-causal for low-frequency inflation movements, and all variables affect money growth. We therefore interpret opposite …

retailers. Forecasting the demand for cash on a granular level is crucial in the process to keep logistics costs low, while … models to define banknote production for the coming years, our contribution is to combine features of macro level forecasting … forecasting methods on granular level can substantially improve inventory performance for this use-case. To guide the …

We present a comprehensive disaggregate approach for short-term forecasting economic activity in Germany by explicitly …-of-sample forecast evaluation setup, we are able to find informative forecasts for most of the underlying GDP components. We then show … first, that both approaches already yield informative aggregate forecasts for forecast horizons of up to 28 weeks and second …

horizon-dependent biases and lower accuracy than simple unconditional uncertainty forecasts. We examine the inflation …

underestimate the ECB's inflation forecasting accuracy. In particular, they believe that the ECB is overly optimistic. Communication …How do households perceive the forecasting performance of the central bank? Using two novel experiments embedded in the … that challenges these perceptions improves the anchoring of inflation expectations, reduces inflation uncertainty and …

bank’s own interest rate expectations. From a theoretical point of view, the latter should yield the highest forecast … investigating the predictive accuracy of the forecasts for interest rates, inflation and output growth made by the Bank of England … view, appears to be at best of minor relevance empirically. -- Forecast Accuracy ; Density Forecasts ; Projections …