Reichlin, Lucrezia; Ricco, Giovanni; Hasenzagl, Thomas - 2020 - This version: 30th October 2019
proposed by Hasenzagl et al. (2018). We distinguish between price variables such as credit spreads and stock variables such as … leverage. We find that (i) although the spreads correlate with the left tail of the conditional distribution of GDP growth …, they provide limited advanced information on growth vulnerability; (ii) nonfinancial leverage provides a leading signal for …