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Using a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) identified with a mix of sign and zero restrictions, we show that a restrictive bank loan supply shock has a strong and persistent negative impact on real GDP and the GDP deflator. This result comes about even though flows of other sources of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011632175
The US credit boom has been identified as one of the causes of the global financial crisis and the resulting debt … overhang is seen as the primary reason for the weak economic recovery. Most of the existing literature links the credit boom to … non-financial private sector had been originated by shadow banks. Consequently, dampening credit creation by the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011456517
The recent financial crisis has put the spotlight on the rapid rise in credit which preceded it. In this paper, we … provide an empirical and theoretical analysis of the credit boom and the macroeconomic context in which it developed. We find … economies in which it took place. We show that this type of credit and financial cycle is hard to reconcile with existing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003843801
We propose a simple model of borrower optimism in competitive lending markets with asymmetric information. Borrowers in our model engage in self-deception to arrive at a belief that optimally trades off the anticipatory utility benefits and material costs of optimism. Lenders' contract design...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012237248
We show that credit supply shocks have a strong impact on firm-level as well as aggregate investment by applying the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011495499
Using detailed data of all German banks, we find that banks which have suffered heavy credit losses reduce their … assumption of constant leverage. Weakly capitalized banks grant fewer new loans than other banks. We control for credit demand …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012651083
In the presence of financial frictions, banks' capital position may constrain their ability to provide loans. The banking sector may thus have important feedback effects on the macroeconomy. To shed new light on this issue, we combine two approaches. First, we use microeconomic balance sheet...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012214741
resulting volatility of bank loan volumes. We argue that since the volume of retail deposits is slow and costly to adjust to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010192750
We study the synchronization of credit booms and busts among 12 major European economies and the United States between … 1972-2011. We propose a regression-based procedure to test whether boom-bust phases of credit cycles coincide across … countries and to cluster countries with positively synchronized credit cycles. We find strong evidence against the existence of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011299045
lending can be explained by a shift in credit towards both export-intensive firms and small banks without foreign asset … exposure that have a higher share of exporting firms in their credit portfolio. We also find that German regions where these …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012792736