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Empirical evidence indicates that high oil price volatility has a dampening effect on output in countries that import … of commodity price volatility in commodity exporting countries accounting for both oil and non-oil commodities. To that … significant negative impact of price volatility on real output for oil exporters. Our results for exporters of other commodities …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011346638
To simultaneously consider mixed-frequency time series, their joint dynamics, and possible structural changes, we introduce a time-varying parameter mixed-frequency VAR. To keep our approach from becoming too complex, we implement time variation parsimoniously: only the intercepts and a common...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011903709
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This paper studies high-frequency econometric methods to test for a jump in the spread of bond yields. We propose a coherent inference procedure that detects a jump in the yield spread only if at least one of the two underlying bonds displays a jump. Ignoring this inherent connection by basing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014343097
The uncertainty of U.S. core inflation, measured by the stochastic volatility of forecast errors, has soared to a level …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436184
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This paper proposes a Skewed Stochastic Volatility (SSV) model to model time varying, asymmetric forecast distributions … volatility and asymmetric measurement densities. Estimating the model based on US data yields conditional forecast densities that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012807854
Cholesky multivariate stochastic volatility model.It establishes that systematically different dynamic restrictions are imposed … divergent when volatility clusters idiosyncratically.It is illustrated that this property is important for empirical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012250452
Im Laufe des Jahres 1993 war die Metallgesellschaft Refining & Marketing (MGRM), eine US-amerikanische Tochtergesellschaft der Metallgesellschaft AG, in großem Umfang die Verpflichtung eingegangen, langfristig Öl zu Festpreisen zu liefern. Das dadurch entstehende Preisrisiko sollte über...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013428156