We investigate the e ect of monetary policy on European macroeconomic variables using a small-scale vector autoregression (VAR) and the "Effective Monetary Stimulus" (EMS). The EMS is a monetary policy metric obtained from yield curve data that is designed to consistently reflect the overall...

I propose a new term structure model for euro area real and nominal interest rates which explicitly incorporates a time-varying lower bound for nominal interest rates. Results suggest that the lower bound is of importance in structural analyses implying time-varying impulse responses of yield...

The estimation of dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) turns out to be challenging in the presence of a small sample. It is exacerbated if the sample is characterized by a prolonged period of low interest rates near a time-varying effective lower bound. These challenges all weigh heavily when...

We estimate the effects of a negative asymmetric demand shock on the real exchange rate for the euro area vis-à-vis the United States, Canada, and Japan by state-dependent sign-restricted local projection methods. We find a real depreciation when interest rates are not at the ZLB, but also when...

This paper explores the impact of low (but) positive and negative market interest rates on euro area banks' net interest margin (NIM) and its components, retail lending and retail deposit rates. Using two proprietary bank-level data sets, I find a positive impact of the level of the short-term...

We propose an arbitrage-free shadow-rate term structure model to analyze the euro-area yield curve from 1999 to mid-2015, when bond yields turned negative at various maturities. In the model the 'shadow rate' can reach any positive or negative level, while the actual one-month rate cannot fall...

State-owned enterprises (SOEs) provide opportunities for a more flexible and market-based provision of public services. At the same time, they may impair fiscal transparency and offer politicians discretion in the presence of strict fiscal rules if these only constrain the core udget. Using a...

We examine the fiscal footprint of macroprudential policy in euro area countries arising through the bond market channel (Reis, 2021). Using local projections, we estimate impulse responses of the fiscal balance to an unexpected tightening in macroprudential capital regulation. Our findings...

The establishment of a sovereign debt restructuring mechanism (SDRM) is one of the important issues in the academic debate on a viable constitution for the European Monetary Union (EMU). Yet the topic seems to be taboo in official reform contributions to the debate. Against this backdrop, the...

We explore how changes in capital-based macroprudential regulation affect theexposure of national banking sectors to domestic government debt in the euro area,thus strengthening or weakening the sovereign-bank nexus. To do so, we construct ameasure of macroprudential policy based on...