find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB’s SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … useful information. By contrast, incorporating expectations derived from financial market prices or those of firms and …

evidence based on the ZEW Financial Market Survey, covering the behavior of expectations heterogeneity during the recent surge …Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity …. In this paper, we focus on expectations heterogeneity among professional forecasters. We first present stylized facts and …

underestimate the ECB's inflation forecasting accuracy. In particular, they believe that the ECB is overly optimistic. Communication … that challenges these perceptions improves the anchoring of inflation expectations, reduces inflation uncertainty and …, the causal effect of central bank trust on inflation expectations is quantified using instruments to deal with endogeneity. …

Central bank surveys frequently elicit households’ probabilistic beliefs about future inflation. However, most … household surveys use a response scale that is tailored towards low-inflation regimes. Using data from a randomized controlled … trial included in the Bundesbank Online Panel Households, we show (i) that keeping the original scale in high-inflation …

Did the decline in inflation rates from 2012 to 2015 and the low levels of market-based inflation expectations lead to … reaction of inflation-linked swap (ILS) rates - a market-based measure of inflation expectations - to macroeconomic surprises … inflation adjustment process and provides no evidence for a de-anchoring of inflation expectations or a loss of credibility for …

horizon-dependent biases and lower accuracy than simple unconditional uncertainty forecasts. We examine the inflation …

experiences of these macroeconomic outcomes they have made during life. Focusing on expectations about national inflation …This paper documents that individuals' expectations about macroeconomic outcomes are systematically linked with the … variables over the respondents' lifetime, respectively. I find that experience significantly predicts respondents' expectations …

exploits the rounding patterns in individuals' responses to survey questions on inflation expectations (Binder, 2017). This … inflation expectations. …. Macroeconomists increasingly rely on survey data on subjective expectations. An innovative approach to measure aggregate uncertainty …