forecast errors to estimate measures of forecast uncertainty. This work addresses the question how the latter estimation can be … quantities. It turns out that the SUR estimator of forecast uncertainty tends to deliver large efficiency gains compared to the …Recently, several institutions have increased their forecast horizons, and many institutions rely on their past …

We develop a measure of static misallocation that separates uncertainty from misallocation generated by tax …-like distortions. In the Finnish firm-level data, uncertainty accounts for the majority of ex post misallocation and explains a strong … implies idiosyncratic distortions, in line with our accounting approach. According to our quantitative results, uncertainty …

robust model for small amounts of uncertainty and analyze the effect of robustness on optimal trading strategies and … liquidation costs. In particular, in our model ambiguity aversion is observationally equivalent to increased risk aversion. This …

Measuring economic uncertainty is crucial for understanding investment decisions by individuals and firms …. Macroeconomists increasingly rely on survey data on subjective expectations. An innovative approach to measure aggregate uncertainty … uncertainty. The results provide evidence for the existence of considerable heterogeneity in individuals' response behavior and …

I propose a Bayesian quantile VAR to identify and assess the impact of uncertainty and certainty shocks, unifying Bloom …'s (2009) two identification steps into one. I find that an uncertainty shock widens the conditional distribution of future … real economic activity growth, in line with a risk shock. Conversely, a certainty shock (a shock strongly decreasing …

Previous work suggests a general uncertainty surrounding the migration process acts as a barrier to outmigration. In … this paper, we argue that this barrier is exacerbated when relative economic policy uncertainty is higher in the target … migration from 12 European countries between 1997 and 2012 and test the premise that a higher relative uncertainty in the origin …

that climate policy uncertainty (CPU) shocks (i) lower the market value of the highly carbon-emitting sector relative to … the data, we employ a news article-based measure of climate policy uncertainty to identify CPU shocks as well as quarterly …